RESEARCH AND INNOVATION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO · SUMMER 2007 · VOL.8, NO.2
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CARS AND GREENHOUSE GASES

IN 2004, road transportation accounted for 19 per cent of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions.This number is comparable to the amount produced by electricity generation and by the oil, gas and coal industries. Greenhouse gas emissions from transportation rose 30 per cent from 1990 to 2004. Emissions from light duty gasoline trucks (SUVs, vans and pick-ups) increased 101 per cent from 1990-2004. In the same period, emissions from cars decreased 7.4 per cent. Source: Environment Canada.

car
THE CAR: Urban Sprawl, the environment, and our romance with the road.

“I guess I should have known by the way you parked your car sideways it wouldn’t last...”

In Little Red Corvette, Prince sings about a romance that’s doomed from the start. His metaphor of a car parked lengthwise, hogging several parking spaces, conjures a precise image in our minds. We know exactly the sort of person his paramour is. We wouldn’t want to date her either.

Cars are everywhere. We take them for granted because they penetrate nearly every aspect of our lives. Giving rise to highways and malls, they have shaped our cities. They power our economy both directly and indirectly. They affect our health — and the planet’s.

The impact of cars extends beyond their literal presence in our lives. They permeate our culture, too. We’ve experienced freedom on the Beach Boys’ California freeways (“fun, fun, fun, till her daddy takes the T-Bird away”).

We’ve felt the exhilaration of escaping from the grind of Bruce Springsteen’s working-class New Jersey (“the highway’s jammed with broken heroes on a last chance power drive”). And where would Batman be without his Batmobile? Would Jack Kerouac have defined the beat generation without the road trips that became the basis for On the Road?

We’ve mythologized cars because they symbolize freedom, mobility, escape. A fresh start as you race toward the horizon.

But what about traffic congestion? Smog? Global warming? Road rage? As the dark side of car culture begins to make its way into our collective consciousness, we have to ask: have the tools of our freedom become the agents of our oppression?


START YOUR ENGINES

The North American romance with the car makes sense.We live on a big continent and cars have freed us: from needing to live where we work, from long journeys to shop or visit family.They’ve freed us to eat food grown elsewhere and trucked to us, to vacation relatively inexpensively.

“The automobile is the most important technological innovation in our society,” says Dr. Peter Frise, CEO and Scientific Director of AUTO21, a network of centres of excellence established by the Government of Canada. “The car enables you to do things you can’t do any other way. I started the day yesterday in Toronto, attended several meetings, and finished in Windsor with my family.”

It’s no surprise, then, that cars have become important engines of our economy or that the auto industry is Canada’s largest manufacturing sector.

But how did we get here?Why are we so dependent on cars? There are many interrelated answers to this question, says Steve Penfold, an assistant professor of History who teaches a fourth-year seminar on the history of the car in North America. Causes include the advent of Henry Ford’s assembly line, which made cars cheap, and the way advertisers in the early and mid-20th century succeeded in getting people to imbue cars with cultural meaning.

A big part of today’s auto-dependency, though, has to do with the suburbs,particularly a set of circumstances in the post-World War II era that entrenched the car as central to life as we know it.

“The car produced its own geography,” says Penfold, explaining that many researchers look to postwar housing and transportation policies as drivers of suburbanization. For example, consider government backing of mortgages for new suburban residential development, expanded funding for highways, even international trade decisions like the Auto Pact of 1965, which created a continental auto market.

It is easy to look back with critical eyes,says Paul Hess, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography and Program in Planning. He explains that postwar decentralization was not seen as a problem at the time. “The planning system was extremely successful at creating exactly the environment we wanted.”

Penfold agrees. “We look back and ask what structural forces shaped the decisions people were making. You could list things like government policies that called for widening roads and building highways, but at the same time, people were hungry for automobility.”

As an example, consider our nostalgia for the golden age of streetcars in the 1940s. Penfold reminds us that they were smoky and dirty and there was often tension between male commuters and female shoppers, the latter group generally not seen as legitimate users of transit.“If I’m a woman in 1947 and I can drive, it’s an attractive option,” says Penfold. “In the historical moment of the 1940s there were lots of good reasons to want off trolleys.”

The chicken-and-egg question of cars and suburbia may never be answered.“Did people move to the suburbs because they like to drive or did they move to the suburbs and discover they had to drive?” asks Penfold. It’s not a question he expects to answer definitively, though he believes the truth is probably a complex interplay of individual decisions and broader social and economic forces.

cars by the numbers
DOUBLE PARKED

The effect of this interplay continues to be felt today. Hess explains that as housing and employment became increasingly suburban in the post-World War II era, dependence on driving solidified, so much so that today even people who want to drive less are often forced to remain in their cars by the economics of urban form. “Once you have urban form totally oriented around the automobile, you can’t make transit work economically,” he explains.

What might alternative, less car-dependent land use patterns look like? Much attention has been paid recently to creating new neighbourhoods not centred around the automobile. This philosophy is often called New Urbanism and it calls for homes to be built on smaller lots and mixed in with shops so that residents can walk to corner stores.

Garages in New Urban developments are generally detached and situated on laneways behind houses, as in prewar urban areas — the idea being that the car should not be the focus of a household. Narrow streets and town squares are meant to get people outside socializing. Hess conducted a study that suggests that despite our best efforts, the car reigns supreme, even in areas designed to minimize its influence.He surveyed residents of three neighbourhoods in the Greater Toronto Area about how they used the land around their homes. In New Urban areas (where the car was out back) he found that roughly three-quarters of respondents used the back door rather than the front to access their houses. This number was much lower in an urban neighbourhood he surveyed for comparison. His hypothesis — “if the car is out back, people are too” — proved true. Why? Because even if they lived in walkable communities, these communities were embedded in a wider suburban context that demanded a car.

Being locked in a system that depends so heavily on the car presents a host of challenges, the greatest of which might be environmental. Public attention is increasingly focused on the environment and it’s clear that at least some of the blame for the current environmental crisis belongs to cars.

“There’s a growing sense that climate change is a serious problem,” says Hess. “For many people there’s a connection to how much they drive. But most people can’t imagine how they could live any other way.” And indeed, his research suggests that perhaps they can’t live any other way, barring dramatic social and urban change.

 

THE CASE FOR A CARBON TAX

JOHANNES VAN Biesebroeck, assistant professor in the Department of Economics and the Institute for Policy Analysis, suggests that the most efficient way to solve environmental problems exacerbated by driving is with a carbon tax.

“Current regulations require manufacturers to sell more fuel efficient vehicles, but wouldn’t it be simpler to give people incentives to buy vehicles that burn less fuel?” he asks.“It is often suggested that raising fuel taxes is political suicide in North America. The Canadian public says their number one concern is the environment, but they’re still buying SUVs. Revealed preference tells me that they don’t care about the environment, they care about being seen as caring about the environment.”

He gives an example of an existing tax credit for those who buy the hybrid Toyota Prius. “Relative to the Corolla, the Prius is saving 2.2 litres per 100 kilometres in mileage. Toyota sells 109,000 Priuses in North America, mostly in the U.S.But GM’s latest full-size pickup trucks gained more than a litre mileage per 100 kilometres. GM sold 930,000 of those last year.

So the amount gained by GM when it made its pickup truck more efficient was vastly more than the impact of the Prius. Yet every Prius owner gets a $4,000 subsidy from the Ontario and federal governments.

“Touting your environmental credentials is a consumption value. I don’t think we should use tax money to subsidize it.Raise the price of gas and the problem solves itself.”



GASSING UP

According to fuel consumption ratings published by Natural Resources Canada, if you drive a 2007 Hummer H3 4x4, you’re using 16.3 litres of fuel per 100 kilometres in the city and your car is responsible for 6,720 kilograms of carbon dioxide per year. If you drive a 2007 Honda Civic you use 7.8 litres per 100 kilometres and discharge 3,312 kilograms of carbon dioxide.

The simple math of fuel efficiency is one way to measure the environmental impact of driving. Heather MacLean, an associate professor of Civil Engineering, wants us to move beyond calculations like this when considering the impact of our cars.

We think of cars generally as producing emissions, but it’s important to distinguish between air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. Exhaust missions like carbon monoxide and particulate matter come from the combustion of fuel and contribute to smoggy skies. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide are not usually classified as air pollutants but there is scientific consensus that human production of greenhouse gases is associated with global climate change.While exhaust emissions on a per-vehicle basis are much lower than they used to be, greenhouse gas emissions are on the rise (see sidebar at left).

MacLean considers the environmental and economic impact of cars by using a lifecycle assessment approach, which accounts for every step of the supply chain that sees cars delivered to the dealership, and then continues tracing their impact after purchase.The result is the car’s net impact from the first extraction of the iron ore used to fabricate it to its “death”when it has to be scrapped and shredded.

“A vehicle has a lot of implications over its lifetime, versus, say, a desk,” she says. “How much fuel does a car use? And what are the environmental implications throughout the supply chain of producing that fuel? How much maintenance does it require? What new parts does it require? How much energy does it require to scrap the vehicle?”

Her recent work involves conducting lifecycle assessments of vehicles powered by alternative fuels,particularly ethanol.Rather than focus only on feasibility and efficiency of ethanol once it’s in the car, she’s interested in how the ethanol is produced.

Ethanol is usually produced from corn and as such is a renewable fuel.But,she says,when considered from a lifecycle perspective, it has limited environmental benefits because corn production requires lots of inputs — fertilizer, which itself requires lots of energy to produce, fuel to power tractors and harvesting equipment.

Research has begun into alternative ways to produce ethanol and MacLean is applying lifecycle assessments to these methods. Her work suggests that a product called lignocellulosic ethanol shows some promise. It can be produced from the entire plant, not just the grain as in the production of conventional ethanol.This means it can be produced from stalks and leaves once the grain has been removed, providing a use for what is essentially an agricultural by-product. Even if dedicated crops — called energy crops — are grown for lignocellulosic ethanol production, they require far less fertilizer than conventional corn. The result: substantial greenhouse gas reductions compared to corn ethanol.

Ethanol isn’t a panacea, she cautions.“Right now in the U.S. they’re producing about five billion gallons of ethanol a year, but they’re using around 150 billion gallons of gasoline.To produce those five billion gallons of ethanol, they’re using about 16 per cent of the corn crops in the country.”

Other alternative fuels like biodiesel and hydrogen present similar barriers to widespread adoption. Even batteries used in hybrid vehicles require energy to produce and charge. “My analyses of a large number of different options shows that there’s always some type of cost in environmental or economic terms,” says MacLean.

“Many people think biofuels are wonderful. They’re renewable fuels and that’s as far as they go.There is clearly a need for some bigger-picture thinking so people are truly aware of the implications of their choices.”


STUCK IN TRAFFIC

Eric Miller of the Department of Civil Engineering is exploring what the collective result of all our individual choices is — and whether we’ve reached the limit of what the car can do for us.

He has spent years building a model of travel behaviour in the Greater Toronto Area.The model begins with data on people’s weekday trips and imports the transportation network of roads and subways, yielding information about congestion, loading on transit lines, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, by figuring out where people are going and how they’re getting there, he can predict the collective social, environmental and logistical outcome of millions of individual trips.

Miller has been testing this ambitious model against historic data by recreating travel patterns based on surveys and the census. If testing is successful,the model can be used to forecast the interplay between urban form and transportation into the future.He will be able to input the changes that a given policy prescribes and see how it affects the system as a whole.

He gives the example of congestion pricing, recently adopted in London, England, to reduce driving trips to the central district. “That could have as much land use impact as it has transportation impact. If you charge to come into the downtown in the short run, people may switch to off-peak hours. They may use transit. But in the longer run they may move. Jobs may flee the downtown.We just don’t know.

“One of the problems we have in public policy is we can’t envision alternative paths,” he says. “Most people can’t envision not having two cars.Yet if we think about what they’re trying to accomplish in their lives with those two cars, there may be other packages of transportation and land use that could meet those objectives.

But it’s difficult to envision what those are, so we’re trying to build tools that are powerful enough to explore those kinds of things.”

Miller’s modelling work has inspired him to think about whether the car is providing us with diminishing returns. “We see cars as freedom, flexibility, convenience. But the promise of the car, beyond a certain point, becomes nullified by the congestion and pollution it generates.”

Miller also wonders if we have thought about all that’s wrapped up with car use in our society.“If we could snap our fingers and turn all cars into electric cars that were somehow being powered by a magical source of electricity that didn’t involve burning coal, natural gas or oil, would we still be happy with the role of the car?”


ACCELERATING INTO THE FUTURE

U of T researchers have different ideas about where we should go from here.

“There’s not any one thing that solves every problem,” says Heather MacLean. Even as she investigates the costs of alternative fuel, she says,“I think we’ll be using gasoline for quite a while.”

Paul Hess, the planner, expresses concern over a society that sees only one way to live.“I worry about an urban environment that’s set up solely for the car. If at some point in the future we don’t want to rely on the car — or can’t rely on it — we’ll have no other choice.” Eric Miller’s work calls for increased spending on mass transit, but he wonders about the likelihood of that happening. “We haven’t put our money where our mouth is,” he says.We want a high quality lifestyle, but we’re not willing to pay for it.”

Alternative fuels, redesigned suburbs,more spending for mass transit: if there are solutions, they are likely to be some combination of these and other prescriptions (see sidebar for an economist’s take on the situation).

But only, says Miller, if we have the collective will.

“The car brings us benefits,” he says. “It’s been adopted because we are mobile people. But I think in urban areas our use of it has become an addiction. At some point it’s not good for you. That’s not to say that we should give up cars, but as a society we have to take a good hard look at this.”

cars by the numbers


by Jenny Hall

 

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RESEARCH AND INNOVATION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO · SUMMER 2007 · VOL.8, NO.2